The Pentagon Leak", A Case Story?

 

A number of top-secret documents that were leaked online just before Ukraine's eagerly awaited "spring offensive" against Russia have given us what appears to be a sneak preview of the US Pentagon's perspective on the war in Europe. 

"The Pentagon Leak"

Such a leak is entirely plausible given that the US relaxed its secrecy for wider sharing of espionage inputs after the 9/11 plans escaped the notice of its spies. (recall WikiLeaks). And now that the US has requested an investigation and damage review, these documents have gained credibility, even though it has been more than a month since the cache first surfaced on Discord and Telegram chat forums before being discovered by Western media. 

Kyiv referred to it as a red herring and a Russian ruse to deceive the West but was also thought to be anxious. (and altering plans on the sly). This collection of Pentagon papers was described by some war bloggers as a tool of mass deception, but one directed at Moscow. 

The Kremlin, for its part, made an old point using the information from the leak: "We don't have the slightest doubt about the direct or indirect involvement of the United States and Nato in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine." This fog only makes the growing importance of information in warfare in the twenty-first century clear.

Mid-February to early March are the dates of the documents under discussion. They do seem to have this war theatre mapped out in detail, though anyone looking them up to catch the Pentagon playing the covert commander of NATO forces is likely to be disappointed.

Russian losses were estimated to be between 189,500 and 223,000 soldiers killed or wounded, while Ukraine's losses were estimated to be between 124,500 and 131,000. Other intelligence reports speak of dangers in Ukraine's east, where a slow battle of attrition is seen headed for a stalemate, and gaps in Ukrainian weaponry, especially its air defenses after their recent battery by Russian drone and missile strikes. 

What has amazed and alarmed many reviewers is how closely US spooks may have bugged Russia's war machine, despite reports that the leaked files also revealed some of Kyiv's army formations and weaponry, right down to daily ammo use. 

The collection includes enough details about enemy troop movements, attack targets that were intercepted, and battle strategies to suggest that America is actively maintaining a network of eyes and ears. The Western concern is whether US spies will now be apprehended and valuable tip-offs will be lost because some of these printouts are said to bear code marks that could identify sources (something even journalists aren't so careless about). This particular risk has shifted a lot of Western opinion against the leak being an American ruse, along with a few allies whose feathers have been ruffled by other leaked portions.

But as far as we are aware, NATO has not yet experienced a major catastrophe. Even Moscow has not chosen anything to single out the US-led alliance as a combatant with hostile intentions. Nearly 100 NATO special forces personnel are referred to in one document as being in Ukraine, but these individuals could merely be trainers. It would be best for impartial analysts to hold off on jumping to conclusions at this point and carefully examine the documents to see what they have to say about the use of hot information in contemporary combat. 

After all, a disadvantageous accumulation of military hardware can be overcome by sitting atop an information asymmetry. This effect might have become sharper. Grit, weapons, and a data advantage—with satellite internet links contributing—as a strategic advantage are responsible for Ukraine's tenacious resistance to Russia. We might never learn whether the most recent leak represents a salvo or not. It appears to be a case study appropriate for the Indian Military Academy in either case.