2024 is On The Head, Why is Biden Lying Down

 

In one of the best scenes from HBO's fourth season of "Succession," Brian Cox's character Logan Roy, a conservative media tycoon, unexpectedly joins his four adult children in a karaoke bar to try to save a business deal that three of them are undermining. Additionally, he claims that he is there to apologize to them. 

He unleashes on them, saying, "You are not serious figures," when the conversation that follows doesn't go his way. Although I love you, you are not a serious individual.

The quote is strong, and it might sum up how Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden are approaching the declared and likely GOP candidates in the run-up to the 2024 election.

For several months, it was unclear if Biden would seek reelection. The president also stated that he is "not prepared to announce it yet" despite having finally acknowledged this week that he intends to run.

Biden is utilizing what has come to be known as the "Rose Garden strategy," whereby the incumbent campaigns by focusing on the duties of being president and demonstrating to voters that he is the more capable candidate in the race, by choosing to remain quiet while Republicans are preparing for 2024.

The president's understated approach allows Republicans to create chaos, fight among themselves, and commit unforced mistakes while he stays out of the fray for as long as possible. 

By focusing the election on the GOP, this tactic allows Biden to reiterate his message from 2020: Do voters want a circus or someone who will govern and act seriously?

Donald Trump, a former president, was the first of the GOP hopefuls to declare his candidature five months ago. But contrary to what many Republican voters might have hoped, Trump has been the talk of the media in recent weeks. His dedication to the rule of law—or lack thereof—has come under increased scrutiny following his indictment in New York on charges of falsifying business records. This court case is just one of many. Trump might just be claiming the title of presidential candidate in the greatest legal peril — ever — between a civil lawsuit centered on allegations of rape and defamation and the case in Georgia centered on his attempt to overturn the presidential election. (Trump has consistently denied any wrongdoing.)

Trump is embracing his outlaw image rather than attempting to distance himself from it, which is understandable given how he enjoys pitting himself against his opponents and using conflict to his advantage. He recently declared that he would continue to attend school even if he were found guilty of a crime.

While Republicans wait for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to move, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott attempt to occupy the non-Trump lane.

DeSantis currently has the best chance of defeating Trump in the primaries, but by taking extreme stances in the culture wars rather than on the pressing issues of the day, he is also contributing to the perception of a party that is more concerned with igniting outrage. 

DeSantis, along with many other Republicans, recently signed Florida's six-week abortion ban into law. This extreme stance on reproductive rights could result in a significant electoral backlash.

Biden and Harris appear to be wagering that by railing against the Republicans in the coming months, the Republicans can do far more harm to themselves than the Democrats could ever do. Let Republicans be Republicans and demonstrate that they are, to borrow Roy's phrase, "not serious people."

They believe that by doing this, space may be opened up for a campaign that portrays Biden and Harris as responsible adults. Most voters may decide to support Biden if the country is shaken by uncertainty, whether it manifests itself in the form of escalating geopolitical tensions, turbulent economic conditions, or a natural disaster. They may reason that it is best not to change ships midstream, especially if the other ship doesn't appear to be able to sail for very long. Biden is working on policies like promoting the sale of electric cars, and Harris is fortifying ties with nations throughout Africa while Trump is engaged in a legal battle after a legal battle.

The "Rose Garden strategy" has undoubtedly failed before; Republican and Democratic presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, respectively, used it in 1976 and 1980 but both lost their respective reelection campaigns.

However, the times and the Republican Party are different now. More independent and moderate voters will begin to doubt the GOP's ability to win back the White House the longer the party's chaos is kept front and center.

Although Biden may be monotonous and frequently go unnoticed, it was his portrayal of normalcy that contributed to his victory in the 2020 election. It is the image that enabled Democrats to perform remarkably well in the 2022 midterm elections, and it is the image that very well may enable him to win reelection in 2024.