What Pacific accords is China pursuing, and why is everyone concerned?

When word of a draught security pact granting Chinese military and police substantial access to the Solomon Islands surfaced in March, it reignited interest in China's Pacific ambitions. Australia and NewZealand, the Solomon Islands' traditional security partners, as well as other Pacific states and the United States, were taken aback by the news.

This week, while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was on a 10-day trip to the Pacific, word leaked that Beijing was attempting to secure a broad economic security agreement with ten countries, which would result in a substantial extension of its regional dominance.

What concerns Australia, New Zealand, and the United States?

All three countries have expressed fears that a stronger Chinese security presence in the Pacific might destabilise the region, with the Solomons pact posing the greatest risk of China establishing a military facility on the islands, which are only 2,000 kilometres from Australia's east coast. Beijing and Honiara have both denied the existence of such a plot.

Meanwhile, due to its fishing riches and geostrategic location in the central Pacific, China's apparent interest in forming a similar agreement with Kiribati has raised concerns. Both Kiribati and the Solomon Islands enjoyed diplomatic ties with Taiwan until 2019, when they transitioned to China.

The news of Wang's visit, as well as the possibility of a multilateral security and economic agreement, will have sounded new alarm bells in Washington, Canberra, and Wellington.

"When you consider China's global interests and the Pacific countries' relative modest size, it's clear that Beijing has ambitious long-term aspirations in the region," says Richard McGregor, a senior fellow at Australia's Lowy Institute.

What are their plans to deal with it?

After years of friction between the Pacific and the previous Liberal-National coalition government, Australia's new foreign minister, Penny Wong, has made it plain that the Pacific will be one of Canberra's top objectives in her first days in office. Soon after her inauguration, she gave a video speech to regional leaders, promising to make climate change a priority and that Australia will be a "generous, respectful, and reliable" partner. She left on Thursday for her own competing trip to the Pacific, which included a meeting with Fiji's Prime Minister, Frank Bainimarama, and an address at the Pacific Islands Forum in Suva.

Last month, the US sent a high-level delegation to the Solomon Islands to convey its worries over the China pact, with Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink later refusing to rule out military action if China establishes a military facility there.

New Zealand has taken a softer line, with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern declaring this week that while it was "not for us to speak on behalf of other Pacific states," Wellington was "ready to respond" to regional security concerns.

What Pacific agreements has China signed, and what is on the horizon?

Beijing's first known bilateral security arrangement in the Pacific is with the Solomon Islands. During Wang's visit, it is widely assumed that China would sign additional deals with the Solomon Islands, as well as other Pacific states.

Teburoro Tito, Kiribati's ambassador to the United States and the United Nations, told the Guardian this week that China has agreed to fund the renovation of a World War II airstrip on Kanton Island in principle, but refuted claims that a broader security agreement was in the works.

Concerns have been raised that Kiribati might sign a deal with China that would grant China special fishing rights in the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA), which was one of the world's largest marine protected areas until the Kiribati government announced last year that the PIPA would be opened up to commercial fishing.

Vanuatu has just signed a contract with China to build a new runway extension at Pekoa airport on the island of Santo, allowing larger planes to land and allowing humanitarian aid to be delivered.

So, have Australia, New Zealand, and the United States failed to deliver?

The Pacific islanders have long accused Australia of ignoring their climate worries, which they regard as an existential threat. Canberra's leaders have also been caught making jokes about the Pacific's concerns.

Tony Abbott, then-prime minister, and Peter Dutton, his immigration minister, were filmed laughing about rising sea levels in the region in 2015. Several leaders accused then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison of dismissive and offensive behaviour after a 2019 Pacific Islands Forum conference, with Bainimarama telling the Guardian that Morrison's condescending tone was pushing the Pacific towards China.

What deals is China pursuing in the Pacific and why is everyone so worried? https://t.co/bEBReN0jaH

— The Guardian (@guardian) May 26, 2022

New Zealand has a better relationship with the region, with 60 percent of its foreign aid going there. Its influence has waned in recent years, according to Dr Anna Powles, senior lecturer at Massey University's centre for defence and security studies, who attributes this to "assumptions that Australia and New Zealand didn't need to put significant effort into the region to maintain their perceived primacy."

The US has also been accused of being uninterested in what Pacific leaders want and instead concentrated on hurting China