What Pacific accords is China pursuing, and why is everyone concerned?
When word of a draught security pact granting Chinese
military and police substantial access to the Solomon Islands surfaced in
March, it reignited interest in China's Pacific ambitions. Australia and NewZealand, the Solomon Islands' traditional security partners, as well as other
Pacific states and the United States, were taken aback by the news.
This week, while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was
on a 10-day trip to the Pacific, word leaked that Beijing was attempting to
secure a broad economic security agreement with ten countries, which would
result in a substantial extension of its regional dominance.
What concerns Australia, New Zealand, and the United
States?
All three countries have expressed fears that a
stronger Chinese security presence in the Pacific might destabilise the region,
with the Solomons pact posing the greatest risk of China establishing a
military facility on the islands, which are only 2,000 kilometres from
Australia's east coast. Beijing and Honiara have both denied the existence of
such a plot.
Meanwhile, due to its fishing riches and geostrategic
location in the central Pacific, China's apparent interest in forming a similar
agreement with Kiribati has raised concerns. Both Kiribati and the Solomon
Islands enjoyed diplomatic ties with Taiwan until 2019, when they transitioned
to China.
The news of Wang's visit, as well as the possibility
of a multilateral security and economic agreement, will have sounded new alarm
bells in Washington, Canberra, and Wellington.
"When you consider China's global interests and
the Pacific countries' relative modest size, it's clear that Beijing has
ambitious long-term aspirations in the region," says Richard McGregor, a
senior fellow at Australia's Lowy Institute.
What are their plans to deal with it?
After years of friction between the Pacific and the
previous Liberal-National coalition government, Australia's new foreign
minister, Penny Wong, has made it plain that the Pacific will be one of
Canberra's top objectives in her first days in office. Soon after her
inauguration, she gave a video speech to regional leaders, promising to make
climate change a priority and that Australia will be a "generous,
respectful, and reliable" partner. She left on Thursday for her own
competing trip to the Pacific, which included a meeting with Fiji's Prime
Minister, Frank Bainimarama, and an address at the Pacific Islands Forum in
Suva.
Last month, the US sent a high-level delegation to the
Solomon Islands to convey its worries over the China pact, with Assistant Secretary
of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink later refusing
to rule out military action if China establishes a military facility there.
New Zealand has taken a softer line, with Prime
Minister Jacinda Ardern declaring this week that while it was "not for us
to speak on behalf of other Pacific states," Wellington was "ready to
respond" to regional security concerns.
What Pacific agreements has China signed, and what is
on the horizon?
Beijing's first known bilateral security arrangement
in the Pacific is with the Solomon Islands. During Wang's visit, it is widely
assumed that China would sign additional deals with the Solomon Islands, as
well as other Pacific states.
Teburoro Tito, Kiribati's ambassador to the United
States and the United Nations, told the Guardian this week that China has
agreed to fund the renovation of a World War II airstrip on Kanton Island in
principle, but refuted claims that a broader security agreement was in the
works.
Concerns have been raised that Kiribati might sign a
deal with China that would grant China special fishing rights in the Phoenix
Islands Protected Area (PIPA), which was one of the world's largest marine
protected areas until the Kiribati government announced last year that the PIPA
would be opened up to commercial fishing.
Vanuatu has just signed a contract with China to build
a new runway extension at Pekoa airport on the island of Santo, allowing larger
planes to land and allowing humanitarian aid to be delivered.
So, have Australia, New Zealand, and the United States
failed to deliver?
The Pacific islanders have long accused Australia of
ignoring their climate worries, which they regard as an existential threat.
Canberra's leaders have also been caught making jokes about the Pacific's
concerns.
Tony Abbott, then-prime minister, and Peter Dutton,
his immigration minister, were filmed laughing about rising sea levels in the
region in 2015. Several leaders accused then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison of
dismissive and offensive behaviour after a 2019 Pacific Islands Forum
conference, with Bainimarama telling the Guardian that Morrison's condescending
tone was pushing the Pacific towards China.
What deals is China pursuing in the Pacific and why is everyone so worried? https://t.co/bEBReN0jaH
— The Guardian (@guardian) May 26, 2022
New Zealand has a better relationship with the region,
with 60 percent of its foreign aid going there. Its influence has waned in
recent years, according to Dr Anna Powles, senior lecturer at Massey
University's centre for defence and security studies, who attributes this to
"assumptions that Australia and New Zealand didn't need to put significant
effort into the region to maintain their perceived primacy."
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