Why North Korea might be lying about its dictator’s health
North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Un was reported unwell a
few weeks ago, reason being “excessive
smoking, obesity, and overwork,” and was said to have undergone a
cardiovascular procedure on April 12. The country did not put out a clear word
about its leader’s health. What triggered suspicion in International scenario
was Kim’s absence from two of the country’s key events - April 15 celebrations,
which marks birth anniversary of Kim’s grandfather and regime’s founder, Kim Il Sung, and April 25 annual
parade, which commemorates the establishment of country’s armed forces.
What followed Kim’s absence was panic among people, who
reportedly have started stockpiling necessities, anticipating the worst. Kim’s
total disappearance from public eye sparked rumours that the North Korean
leader could be gravely ill or maybe even dead. But given the regime’s control
over media and flow of information, its almost impossible to get access to the
truth. North Korea could be keeping the truth under wraps to avoid any form of
political instability. Oriana Skylar Mastro, a professor and political writer,
pointed out that as per her research hereditary dictatorships on an average lasts 32 years, but Kim dynasty has
rule North Korea for past 70 years, so the regime could be nearing its collapse.
In case change of leader, things would get more critical
for North Korea as Kim hasn’t designated a successor, rather
wiped out any potential successor to secure his reign. It leaves his sister Kim Yo Jong as the only
possible option as the country’s leader, but political analyst believe that her
gender could be seen as a disqualification to take over the authoritarian
hereditary regime.
Besides the regime change would impact power dynamics in
the region, escalating geopolitical competition between US and China. In case,
there emerges any possibility of transition of power, nation would lose its
peace to waring factions in the country, triggering civil war. While for
neighbouring nations, China would conduct an extensive military intervention to
gain control over its territory. The US, which is seen as the country’s arch
rival, would immediately initiate joint operation in collaboration with South
Korean forces not only to gain control over the region but to get access to and
destroy North Korean nuclear weapons before they get into the hands of any
terrorist group.
Thae Yong-ho, a member of South Korean parliament, who was
earlier a North Korean diplomat told CNN that irrespective of reports being
published over Kim’s health, “the only people who can confirm his real
condition might be Kim Jong Un's wife or his sister, or his close aides”. He
added, “Those rumors of where he is now, (or) whether he has any surgery, I
don't think that is really based on the facts." He mentioned that even during the
death of Kim Jong Il, the news was kept secret for two days and the North
Korean Foreign Minister got to know about it only an hour before the official
announcement.
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