Why North Korea might be lying about its dictator’s health

North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Un was reported unwell a few weeks ago, reason being “excessive smoking, obesity, and overwork,” and was said to have undergone a cardiovascular procedure on April 12. The country did not put out a clear word about its leader’s health. What triggered suspicion in International scenario was Kim’s absence from two of the country’s key events - April 15 celebrations, which marks birth anniversary of Kim’s grandfather and regime’s founder, Kim Il Sung, and April 25 annual parade, which commemorates the establishment of country’s armed forces.

What followed Kim’s absence was panic among people, who reportedly have started stockpiling necessities, anticipating the worst. Kim’s total disappearance from public eye sparked rumours that the North Korean leader could be gravely ill or maybe even dead. But given the regime’s control over media and flow of information, its almost impossible to get access to the truth. North Korea could be keeping the truth under wraps to avoid any form of political instability. Oriana Skylar Mastro, a professor and political writer, pointed out that as per her research hereditary dictatorships on an average lasts 32 years, but Kim dynasty has rule North Korea for past 70 years, so the regime could be nearing its collapse.

In case change of leader, things would get more critical for North Korea as Kim hasn’t designated a successor, rather wiped out any potential successor to secure his reign. It leaves his sister Kim Yo Jong as the only possible option as the country’s leader, but political analyst believe that her gender could be seen as a disqualification to take over the authoritarian hereditary regime.

Besides the regime change would impact power dynamics in the region, escalating geopolitical competition between US and China. In case, there emerges any possibility of transition of power, nation would lose its peace to waring factions in the country, triggering civil war. While for neighbouring nations, China would conduct an extensive military intervention to gain control over its territory. The US, which is seen as the country’s arch rival, would immediately initiate joint operation in collaboration with South Korean forces not only to gain control over the region but to get access to and destroy North Korean nuclear weapons before they get into the hands of any terrorist group.

Thae Yong-ho, a member of South Korean parliament, who was earlier a North Korean diplomat told CNN that irrespective of reports being published over Kim’s health, “the only people who can confirm his real condition might be Kim Jong Un's wife or his sister, or his close aides”. He added, “Those rumors of where he is now, (or) whether he has any surgery, I don't think that is really based on the facts." He mentioned that even during the death of Kim Jong Il, the news was kept secret for two days and the North Korean Foreign Minister got to know about it only an hour before the official announcement.

It questions authenticity of any reasonable explanation regarding Kim’s absence, like the recent one which came from South Korea suggesting that the North Korean leader could be hiding to stay protected from coronavirus infection. Chad O’Carroll, CEO of Korea Risk Group, which monitors North Korea, argued, “If he is merely trying to avoid infection, it should theoretically be very easy to release photos or videos of a healthy-looking Kim.”